Following the intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released an update of its apple and pear crop forecast that was presented during Fruit Logistica.
According to the revised forecast, which consolidates the data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, apple production is set to increase by 2.38% to reach 4,974,990 tonnes, while pear production is expected to decrease by 1.25% to a total of 1,319,601 tonnes.
That was the take from ASOEX (Chile), CAFI (Argentina), ABPM (Brazil), Hortgro (South Africa), APAL (Australia), and New Zealand Apples and Pears, which offered data from the six leading Southern Hemisphere countries.
The initial forecast for the 2023 season, which estimated a 6% and 1% increase for apples and pears respectively compared to 2022, was changed because of intense weather events that affected several countries in the Southern Hemisphere. New Zealand’s and South Africa’s apple crop forecasts were revised downward by 77,902 tonnes and 77,276 tonnes, respectively. New Zealand’s pear crop estimates have were slightly decreased compared to the initial forecast (-323 tonnes), as well as South Africa’s (28,726 tonnes).
Regarding apples, the updated Southern Hemisphere 2023 crop forecast suggests shows a slight increases over last year’s 4.859.026 tonnes. A smaller apple crop is expected in New Zealand, (457,675 T, -9% compared to 2022), Australia (-8% compared to 2022, to a total of 290,000 T), and South Africa (1,142,880 T, down 5%).
Chile remains the largest producer (1,409,633 T, in line with 2022), now followed by Brazil (1,150,000 T, +12%). Argentina’s apple production should reach 525.000 tonnes (+24% compared to 2022). Exports are also expected to decrease (-3% compared to 2022) to a total of 1.556.668 tonnes. Chile remains the largest exporter (604,000 T) followed by South Africa (509,158 T), whose exports are forecasted to decrease by 10%. Exports from New Zealand (286,823 T) and Australia (2,687 T) are also expected to decrease by 15% and 1%, respectively. Brazil’s (70,000 T) and Argentina’s exports (84,000 T), on the other hand, are expected to recover from the low 2022 figures. With 1,843,130 tonnes, Gala remains by far the most popular variety, with its production expected to increase by 4% compared to 2022.
Regarding pears, the Southern Hemisphere growers predict a slight decrease of the crop. While Argentina and Chile are expected to increase their production by 4% and 2%, respectively, South Africa’s (-6%), Australia’s (-16%), and New Zealand’s (-19%) production levels are all expected to decrease. Argentina remains the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere (592,000 T), followed by South Africa (477,419 T), Chile (170,000 T), Australia (72,016 T), and New Zealand (8,120 T). Packham’s Triumph remains the most produced variety (481,049 T, in line with 2022), followed by Williams’ bon chrétien pears (332,447 T). Export figures are expected to be stable (670,054 T), with a 12% increase in Argentinian exports and a 13% decrease in exports from South Africa.
Southern Hemisphere updated apple production overview
Southern Hemisphere updated pear production overview