The outlook for avocado production and consumption is expected to be strong over the coming years, although not without challenges, according to a new report from financial service company Rabobank.
With the release of its annual World Avocado Trade Map, Rabobank notes that competition will rise and that pressure will grow on operators to be more synergistic and environmentally conscious.
Still, the past decade has been a boon for the industry, which remains solid. In the UK alone, imports have grown by 12%.
“Attractive prices and returns during that period were relevant drivers to expanding production in key regions,” explains Cindy van Rijswick, Global Strategist – Fresh Produce, Farm Inputs at Rabobank.
Production jumped by double digits in the past 10 years in Colombia, Peru and Kenya, while world leader Mexico rose by 6% and now accounts for 30% globally. One surprise is that United States fell out of the top 10.
Rabobank says that because of the breadth of production from key nations, availability year round has become attainable in the EU, US and in Asia.
“With exports increasing at an average annual growth rate of around 8% over the past decade, Mexico reaffirmed its place as the largest avocado-exporting country in the world, surpassing 1 million metric tons in 2022,” according to Van Rijswick.
Despite its fall in production, the United States is the far and away leader when it comes to imports. They have increased by 8% in the past decade. Europe has supply jump exponentially from Peru (+22%), as well as Spain and Kenya.
Aside from the UK’s interests in imports expanding, avocados are also up by 20% to Spain, 16% to Germany, 14% to the Netherlands and 8% to France.
Currently estimated at USD 18 billion, the avocado industry isn’t slowing much signs of slowing.
“We believe there is room for significant growth in several markets around the world, as per capita consumption is highly variable,” says Van Rijswick.
One variable that could be an obstacle moving forward, however, is water usage. Many farmers have implemented advanced irrigation systems to lessen the impact.